Why is Austin’s Weather Unpredictable?

We all know that we can’t predict the weather in Texas. The daily temperatures can turn on a dime, the clouds will roll in within minutes, and before we know it we are watching a thunderstorm drench the city around us.

Austin’s weather is unpredictable, but why is that? Why does this Texan city have so many different weather patterns and fluctuating temperatures? 

Let’s find out. 

Why is Austin’s weather unpredictable?

Austin is between two major climate zones

Austin is smack-dab in between two major climate zones that cover most of the southern United States. The city exists in a thin transitional zone that naturally occurs at the boundary of the two zones, meaning that the area holds many of the climate characteristics of both zones. 

To the west is the drier, more desert-like region of the Southwest, a region characterized by a higher elevation, dry air and lower precipitation levels. To the east is the Southeast, which is characterized by a lower elevation, more humid air, higher levels of precipitation and a much more lush landscape.

Austin experiences many of the weather patterns that are characteristic to both regions. The city’s elevation changes from about 400 feet in the east to 1000 feet in the west as the landscape changes from prairie to Hill Country, respectively. These elevation changes, no matter how slight, attract and create the variable weather patterns common to the surrounding regions, which is why residents in the Hill Country can experience vastly different weather to residents in southeast Austin.

Austin gets weird cold fronts

One of the most remarkable weather events that happens around Austin and Central Texas is the chaotic Blue Norther. 

Blue Northers are most common from November to March and originate as far north as Canada and the Arctic regions. These frigid cold masses of air collect air from these icy areas and travel south through the center of North America. And, because the landscape is fairly flat and there are no geographical barriers to stop the weather, the cold can travel as far south as Texas! By the time they reach Texas, the warm weather of the Gulf starts to cancel out the cold, and the cold front dissipates before reaching Mexico.

Whether you’ve heard it referred to as an Arctic Screamer, a Blue Blizzard, a Blue Darter or the more common Blue Norther, these cold fronts are a sight to behold and a force to be reckoned with. They appear as a dark barrier rising from the horizon and can change the temperature and weather in a matter of minutes. A typical Blue Norther can drop temperatures by 20-30 degrees in a flash and introduce high enough winds to spark tornadoes and violent wind storms. 

The strongest of these storms occurred on 11/11/11 and travelled from northern Canada to the Gulf of Mexico at 50-70 miles per hour, completing the journey across the continent in just two days. 

Austin has fluctuating humidity

Unlike most cities, Austin has variable humidity levels that change on a day-to-day basis. Air flow and wind patterns constantly shift over the city, and whether the air is coming from the Southeast or Southwest regions will determine whether the air is humid or dry. 

Does this make it hard to predict the weather? Absolutely. Is there anything we can do about it? Nope. Just wait for the 5-day weather report and see what the dice say this week.

Austin gets plenty of sudden storms

We’ve covered why Dallas gets so many thunderstorms already, and a lot of it has to do with the hot air, cold air, strong winds and moist air that circulate through the area around spring. As the region moves into spring and summer, moist air rises from the warm Gulf of Mexico and travels inland. Then it crashes into the cooler air from the jet-stream and leftover winter weather (and Blue Northers), creating massive thunderstorms that can dissipate nearly as soon as they’ve arrived. 

In addition to these Gulf-warmed storms, Austin just happens to find itself as the lower end of Tornado Alley. This loosely defined region of the central United States is a tornado hotspot due to the warm air from the south that clashes with cold air from the north. Blue Northers travel down this region for the same reasons, and these factors create the perfect environments for tornadoes and wind storms. 

The worst tornado storm to hit Austin was back in 1922, when two tornadoes travelled across the city limits from the northeast to the southwest. The storms appeared suddenly over the course of the morning of May 4, and by midday the weather had changed significantly for the worse. The thunderstorm started mid-afternoon, and soon afterward two tornadoes materialized over Austin and were tearing through the city. By the end of the day, they had dissipated and the storm was over. 

Austin’s weather is just weird

If we’ve deduced anything from all this meteorological data, it’s that there are a LOT of factors at play when it comes to Austin’s weather. Austin is humid, until it’s not. Austin is warm, until it’s not. Austin is fairly safe from storms, until it's not. For those of us living in our luxury Austin apartments, this can make things pretty unpredictable.

At the root of all these strange weather patterns is the fact that Austin is right in the middle of a number of weather regions. If the Southwest, the Southeast and Tornado Alley were all part of a Venn diagram, then Austin would be right in the middle. 

Climate areas carry a fair amount of unpredictability on their own, but having three of them to deal with is almost too much to handle. All we can do is just accept that we will never know the truth, the weather reports WILL change and that our outdoor plans will inevitably be cancelled more often than we’d like. 

Oh well!

Featured photo courtesy Pixabay/12019